(V1.0) June 1, 2009 (working paper)
Executive White Paper
What are the key risks to the U.S. national integrity from high unemployment rates and rising inflation?
The integrity of states is ruled by the socioeconomic integrity theory. The degree of the stability of any social system is proportional to the degree of its economic growth and vice versa. Stated differently, the risk to national integrity increases proportionally to the country's economic decline.
When the members of a sociopolitical system share the same economic interests and the existing system produces enough economic opportunities to meet the needs of the members, they are likely to tolerate existing differences and work together towards shared benefits.
On the other hand, when the system fails to produce enough economic opportunities over a long period of time, the members of the system are likely to compete more aggressively for existing resources, causing divisions among the members to grow stronger. The degree of social cohesiveness will diminish and divisions could take different forms such as ethnic, religious and geographic conflicts and at times class warfare or civil wars. If not managed properly, such sociopolitical systems can become dysfunctional. If the dysfunction is left untreated, at a certain point it will take more energy to fix the system than to let it collapse.
History teaches us that people from different religions and ethnic groups can be united around one shared economic goal; equality and prosperity for all. We saw that in the rise of the communist USSR. When the economic policies of the USSR failed, ethnic and national divisions took the forefront and the USSR was dissolved. That can happen to the US if we are hit hard enough by hyperinflation and currency collapse. How the divisions evolve and what forms they will take depend on the type and speed of the government's reaction. It is too early to foresee such events. However, it is important to note that no country is above the socioeconomic laws, US included.
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