Management Hall of Fame: Leading Management Gurus
Alvin Toffler
The
Futurologist (1928 - Present)
-
"The advanced economy could not run for thirty seconds without
computers." (Alvin Toffler)
Key Work
- Alvin Toffler is an American writer and futurist, known for his
works discussing the digital revolution. A former associate editor of
Fortune magazine. He is one of the world's leading authorities on
socio-techno-economic change. Alvin Toffler's special ability is an
understanding of the complex effects of change and the prediction the
future. He anticipated the effects of information technology and biotechnology
developments on the society and the
economy. This ability comes from knowledge of sociology, science and
technology. His early work focused on technology and its impact (through
effects like information overload). He also worked on analyzing the
increasing power of 21st century military hardware, weapons and
technology proliferation, and capitalism.
Key Milestones
- Became a consultant for AT&T.
- Published "Future
Shock" describing the disorientation in of decision-making that
impact
individuals, groups, and societies when they are overwhelmed by quantity
and speed of changing events.
- Published "The Third
Wave" - The information-led human development as a sequence to
agricultural and industrial waves.
- Published "Power shift" -
Discusses the three basic sources of power:
violence, wealth, and knowledge. Toffler talks about the future struggle, as individuals, businesses, and
national economies move away from their traditional sources of power
towards a new dependence on knowledge. A power shift does not merely transfer power, but also
transforms it.
- Published "War and
Anti-War". - It talks about warfare and how it is changing in parallel
to business changes, mainly driven by
advances in information technology. He also talks about the inadequacy of
traditional
military force in preventing terrorist action.
In his book The Third Wave Toffler describes three types of
societies, based on the concept of 'waves' - each wave pushes the older
societies and cultures aside.
- First Wave is the society after agrarian revolution and replaced
the first hunter-gatherer cultures.
- Second Wave is the society during the Industrial Revolution (ca.
late 1600s through the mid-1900s). The main components of the Second
Wave society are nuclear family, factory-type education system and
the corporation. Toffler writes: "The Second Wave Society is
industrial and based on mass production, mass distribution, mass
consumption, mass education, mass media, mass recreation, mass
entertainment, and weapons of mass destruction. You combine those
things with standardization, centralization, concentration, and
synchronization, and you wind up with a style of organization we
call bureaucracy."
- Third Wave is the post-industrial society. Toffler would also
add that since late 1950s most countries are moving away from a
Second Wave Society into what he would call a Third Wave Society. He
coined lots of words to describe it and mentions names invented by
him (super-industrial society) and other people (like the
Information Age, Space Age, Electronic Era, Global Village,
technetronic age, scientific-technological revolution), which to
various degrees predicted demassification, diversity,
knowledge-based production, and the acceleration of change (one of
Toffler’s key maxims is "change is non-linear and can go backwards,
forwards and sideways").
Books & References:
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Future Shock
 . Alvin Toffler, New York: Random House, 1970.
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The Third Wave, New York: Bantam, 1980.
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Powershift: Knowledge, Wealth, and Power at the Edge of the 21st Century . Alvin Toffler, New York: Bantam Books, 1990.
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Alvin Toffler,, and Heidi Toffler. War and Anti-War: Making Sense of Today's Global Chaos. New York: Little,
Brown & Company, 1993.
- The Eco-Spasm Report (1975),
Alvin Toffler, Bantam Books ISBN 0-553-14474-X
- PREVIEWS AND PREMISES ,
Alvin Toffler, (1983)
- Revolutionary Wealth: How it will be created and how it will change our lives ,
Alvin Toffler, (2006) Knopf ISBN 0-375-40174-1
IIM Executive Education & Management Training
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